COVID-19 Misinformation Detection: Machine-Learned Solutions to the Infodemic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: The volume of COVID-19-related misinformation has long exceeded the resources available to fact checkers to effectively mitigate its ill effects. Automated and web-based approaches can provide effective deterrents to online misinformation. Machine learning-based methods have achieved robust performance on text classification tasks, including potentially low-quality-news credibility assessment. Despite the progress of initial, rapid interventions, the enormity of COVID-19-related misinformation continues to overwhelm fact checkers. Therefore, improvement in automated and machine-learned methods for an infodemic response is urgently needed. Objective: The aim of this study was to achieve improvement in automated and machine-learned methods for an infodemic response. Methods: We evaluated three strategies for training a machine-learning model to determine the highest model performance: (1) COVID-19-related fact-checked data only, (2) general fact-checked data only, and (3) combined COVID-19 and general fact-checked data. We created two COVID-19-related misinformation data sets from fact-checked "false" content combined with programmatically retrieved "true" content. The first set contained ~7000 entries from July to August 2020, and the second contained ~31,000 entries from January 2020 to June 2022. We crowdsourced 31,441 votes to human label the first data set. Results: The models achieved an accuracy of 96.55% and 94.56% on the first and second external validation data set, respectively. Our best-performing model was developed using COVID-19-specific content. We were able to successfully develop combined models that outperformed human votes of misinformation. Specifically, when we blended our model predictions with human votes, the highest accuracy we achieved on the first external validation data set was 99.1%. When we considered outputs where the machine-learning model agreed with human votes, we achieved accuracies up to 98.59% on the first validation data set. This outperformed human votes alone with an accuracy of only 73%. Conclusions: External validation accuracies of 96.55% and 94.56% are evidence that machine learning can produce superior results for the difficult task of classifying the veracity of COVID-19 content. Pretrained language models performed best when fine-tuned on a topic-specific data set, while other models achieved their best accuracy when fine-tuned on a combination of topic-specific and general-topic data sets. Crucially, our study found that blended models, trained/fine-tuned on general-topic content with crowdsourced data, improved our models' accuracies up to 99.7%. The successful use of crowdsourced data can increase the accuracy of models in situations when expert-labeled data are scarce. The 98.59% accuracy on a "high-confidence" subsection comprised of machine-learned and human labels suggests that crowdsourced votes can optimize machine-learned labels to improve accuracy above human-only levels. These results support the utility of supervised machine learning to deter and combat future health-related disinformation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.027 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".