A Mobility Forecasting Framework with Vertical Federated Learning
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With the prevalence of mobile devices and location-based services, forecasting human mobility has become a critical topic in ubiquitous computing. Existing forecasting approaches usually adopt frameworks with a centralized mobility data holder. However, mobility data typically pertains to independent organizations, introducing two learning challenges. First, since each organization only holds a location domain subset, none can tackle a forecasting model that covers the whole location domain. Second, distributed mobility data compromises the spatio-temporal correlation between locations hindering learning. Hence, reducing the forecasting accuracy. This work proposes a mobility vertical federated forecasting (MVFF) framework that allows the learning process to be jointly conducted over vertically partitioned data belonging to multiple organizations. MVFF enables the forecasting of mobility predictions covering a joint location domain. We evaluate MVFF's performance over two real-world datasets using different spatial and temporal neural network algorithms. Experimental results demonstrate that the two datasets' mean percentage error performance gains are up to 12% and 4% compared to the state-of-the-art, respectively.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it