Bibliographic record
Abstract
Overview: World growth to remain moderate in 2015 Global growth is expected to remain moderate in 2015. We expect world GDP to rise by 2.8%, a bit higher than the 2.6% estimate for 2014 but still below the average pace seen over the last 20 years. We also expect a divergent performance between the advanced and emerging economies, with the former strengthening while growth in the latter slows further. The improvement in the advanced economies will be led by the US. The strong trend in US payrolls growth increases our confidence that next year will see a significant upturn in US consumer spending – still around a quarter of the global total. We expect US consumption to rise 2.8% next year, helping GDP growth reach 3% ‐ the strongest pace since 2005. Meanwhile we expect another robust year of growth in the UK and modest improvements in the Eurozone and Japan. The further decline in oil prices to around US$70 per barrel, where we expect them to broadly stay in 2015, will boost the advanced economies. With significant monetary expansions in Japan and the Eurozone also helping, we forecast G7 GDP growth at 2.1% in 2015, up from 1.6% this year. But as 2014 draws to an end, the outlook for the key emerging economies remains clouded. Russia has entered a balance of payments crisis and will see a sharp drop in GDP next year. We have also cut Brazil's 2015 GDP forecast to just 0.7% this month. Meanwhile, China surprised markets at the end of November by cutting rates. Further easing measures are likely but we are minded to view this policy shift as confirming our concerns about slowing growth. Overall, we expect that emerging market GDP growth in 2015 will edge down to 3.9% from 4.1% this year – the slowest pace since 2009. One side effect of this may be even more intense competition in world export markets, adding to global disinflationary pressures – we expect inflation at 1.7% in the US, 1.0% in the UK and 0.6% in the Eurozone in 2015. This in turn reinforces our view that global interest rates will rise only very modestly next year.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.008 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.341 | 0.383 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".