Deep learning models for vessel’s ETA prediction: bulk ports perspective
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate vessels’ estimated time of arrival to ports is an important information to ensure efficient port operations management. At all stages of ports and vessels operations planning, arrival times are key milestones. Therefore, the variation of vessels’ arrival times affects port operations and causes disruptions along the global port chain. For this reason, intelligent systems are needed to predict vessels’ estimated time of arrival to speed up rescheduling operations in case of perturbation. This study addresses the problem of predicting bulk vessels’ estimated time of arrival to the destination port. For that, we propose an approach based on Deep Learning sequence models and using different data sources including the Automatic Identification System historical traffic data. This study shows how both recurrent and convolutional neural networks can leverage vessel historical voyage data to predict travel time to the destination.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it