Shear zone evolution and the path of earthquake rupture
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Crustal shear zones generate earthquakes, which are at present unpredictable, but advances in mechanistic understanding of the earthquake cycle offer hope for future advances in earthquake forecasting. Studies of fault zone architecture have the potential to reveal the controls on fault rupture, locking, and reloading that control the temporal and spatial patterns of earthquakes. The Pofadder Shear Zone exposed in the Orange River in South Africa is an ancient, exhumed, paleoseismogenic continental transform which preserves the architecture of the earthquake source near the base of the seismogenic zone. To investigate the controls on earthquake rupture geometries in the seismogenic crust, we produced a high-resolution geologic map of the shear zone core mylonite zone. The core consists of ∼ 1–200 cm, pinch-and-swell layers of mylonites of variable mineralogic composition, reflecting the diversity of regional rock types which were dragged into the shear zone. Our map displays centimetric layers of a unique black ultramylonite along some mylonite interfaces, locally adding to thick composite layers suggesting reactivation or bifurcation. We present a set of criteria for identifying recrystallised pseudotachylytes (preserved earthquake frictional melts) and show that the black ultramylonite is a recrystallised pseudotachylyte, with its distribution representing a map of ancient earthquake rupture surfaces. Pseudotachylytes are most abundant on interfaces between the strongest wall rocks. We find that the geometry of lithologic interfaces which hosted earthquakes differs from interfaces lacking pseudotachylyte at wavelengths of ≳ 10 m. We argue that the pinch-and-swell structure of the mylonitic layering, enhanced by viscosity contrasts between layers of different mineralogy, is expected to generate spatially heterogeneous stress during viscous creep in the shear zone, which dictated the path of earthquake ruptures. The condition of rheologically layered materials causing heterogeneous stresses should be reasonably expected in any major shear zone, is enhanced by creep, and represents the pre-seismic background conditions through which earthquakes nucleate and propagate. This has implications for patterns of earthquake recurrence and explains why some potential geologic surfaces are favored for earthquake rupture over others.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it