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Record W4308748509 · doi:10.1007/s10687-022-00451-9

Asymptotic behavior of an intrinsic rank-based estimator of the Pickands dependence function constructed from B-splines

2022· article· en· W4308748509 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.

Bibliographic record

VenueExtremes · 2022
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicFinancial Risk and Volatility Modeling
Canadian institutionsSimon Fraser UniversityMcGill University
FundersCanadian Statistical Sciences InstituteDeutsche ForschungsgemeinschaftNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaCanada Research ChairsMcGill University
KeywordsMathematicsEstimatorApplied mathematicsBivariate analysisSpline (mechanical)Copula (linguistics)Nonparametric statisticsConsistency (knowledge bases)StatisticsDiscrete mathematicsEconometrics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract A bivariate extreme-value copula is characterized by its Pickands dependence function, i.e., a convex function defined on the unit interval satisfying boundary conditions. This paper investigates the large-sample behavior of a nonparametric estimator of this function due to Cormier et al. (Extremes 17:633–659, 2014). These authors showed how to construct this estimator through constrained quadratic median B-spline smoothing of pairs of pseudo-observations derived from a random sample. Their estimator is shown here to exist whatever the order $$m \ge 3$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>m</mml:mi> <mml:mo>≥</mml:mo> <mml:mn>3</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> of the B-spline basis, and its consistency is established under minimal conditions. The large-sample distribution of this estimator is also determined under the additional assumption that the underlying Pickands dependence function is a B-spline of given order with a known set of knots.

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Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.079
Threshold uncertainty score0.596

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.030
GPT teacher head0.218
Teacher spread0.188 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it