Explainable Tensor Multi-Task Ensemble Learning Based on Brain Structure Variation for Alzheimer’s Disease Dynamic Prediction
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Machine learning approaches for predicting Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression can substantially assist researchers and clinicians in developing effective AD preventive and treatment strategies. This study proposes a novel machine learning algorithm to predict the AD progression utilising a multi-task ensemble learning approach. Specifically, we present a novel tensor multi-task learning (MTL) algorithm based on similarity measurement of spatio-temporal variability of brain biomarkers to model AD progression. In this model, the prediction of each patient sample in the tensor is set as one task, where all tasks share a set of latent factors obtained through tensor decomposition. Furthermore, as subjects have continuous records of brain biomarker testing, the model is extended to ensemble the subjects' temporally continuous prediction results utilising a gradient boosting kernel to find more accurate predictions. We have conducted extensive experiments utilising data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm and model. Results demonstrate that the proposed model have superior accuracy and stability in predicting AD progression compared to benchmarks and state-of-the-art multi-task regression methods in terms of the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) questionnaire and The Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog) cognitive scores. Brain biomarker correlation information can be utilised to identify variations in individual brain structures and the model can be utilised to effectively predict the progression of AD with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data and cognitive scores of AD patients at different stages.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it