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Record W4311858744 · doi:10.3390/en15249292

Financial Hazard Prediction Due to Power Outages Associated with Severe Weather-Related Natural Disaster Categories

2022· article· en· W4311858744 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueEnergies · 2022
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEngineering
TopicPower System Reliability and Maintenance
Canadian institutionsUniversité de Moncton
Fundersnot available
KeywordsRevenueNatural disasterElectric powerExtreme weatherNatural hazardPopulationBusinessElectricityFinanceEnvironmental economicsPower (physics)EconomicsEngineeringClimate changeMeteorologyGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Severe weather conditions not only damage electric power infrastructure, and energy systems, but also affect millions of users, including residential, commercial or industrial consumers. Moreover, power outages due to weather-related natural disasters have been causing financial losses worth billions of US dollars. In this paper, we analyze the impact of power outages on the revenue of electric power suppliers, particularly due to the top five weather-related natural disasters. For this purpose, reliable and publicly available power outage events data are considered. The data provide the time of the outage event, the geographic region, electricity consumption and tariffs, social and economic indicators, climatological annotation, consumer category distribution, population and land area, and so forth. An exploratory analysis is carried out to reveal the impact of weather-related disasters and the associated electric power revenue risk. The top five catastrophic weather-related natural disaster categories are investigated individually to predict the related revenue loss. The most influencing parameters contributing to efficient prediction are identified and their partial dependence on revenue loss is illustrated. It was found that the electric power revenue associated with weather-related natural disasters is a function of several parameters, including outage duration, number of customers, tariffs and economic indicators. The findings of this research will help electric power suppliers estimate revenue risk, as well as authorities to make risk-informed decisions regarding the energy infrastructure and systems planning.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.917
Threshold uncertainty score0.654

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.003
GPT teacher head0.167
Teacher spread0.164 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it