DMGAN: Dynamic Multi-Hop Graph Attention Network for Traffic Forecasting
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the intelligent transportation system, traffic forecasting, which is generally characterized as a graph spatial-temporal prediction task, plays a crucial role. It is challenging to generate reliable forecast results due to the complexity of traffic topological information and the inherent uncertainty of road traffic circumstances. Existing works generally focus on modeling spatial dependency on static graph structures, but ignore dynamic relations between road segments and cannot extract long-range traffic dependencies in spatial-temporal domains. To bridge the above gaps, we present a novel framework, called <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">Dynamic Multi-Hop Graph Attention Network</i> (DMGAN). Specifically, we leverage dynamic graph modeling to capture time-varying relations across road sections and introduce the multi-hop operation in each message propagation layer to extract long-range spatial dependency. Meanwhile, we develop a fusion-attention module, preserving both local and global hidden layer outputs of the encoder, to capture both long- and short-term temporal dependencies jointly. In this way, our method can fully model complex time-varying traffic topology information and capture the internal patterns of traffic series by integrating dynamic graph structure and temporal attention component. DGMAN achieves state-of-the-art performance in three metrics, as demonstrated by experimental findings on four real-world public traffic datasets, METR-LA, PEMS-BAY, PEMS03, and PEMS07. This code and data are available at <uri xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">https://github.com/EEHITer/2022-TKDE-DMGAN-Pytorch/tree/main</uri> for reproducibility and further studies.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it