Transfer Learning Framework for Forecasting Fresh Produce Yield and Price
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate estimates of fresh produce (FP) yields and prices are crucial for having fair bidding prices by retailers along with informed asking prices by farmers, leading to the best prices for customers. To have accurate estimates, the state-of-the-art deep learning (DL) models for forecasting FP yields and prices are improved in this work while a novel transfer learning (TL) framework is proposed for better generalizability. The proposed models are trained and tested using real world datasets for the Santa Barbara region in California, which contain environmental input parameters mapped to FP yield and price output parameters. Based on an aggregated measure (AGM), the proposed model, an ensemble of Attention Deep Feedforward Neural Network with Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) units and Deep Feedforward Neural Network with embedded GRU units, is found to significantly outperform the state-of-the-art models. Beside finding the best DL, the TL framework is utilizing FP similarity, clustering, and TL techniques customized to fit the problem in hand and enhance the model generalization to other FPs. The literature similarity algorithms are improved by considering the time series features rather than the absolute values of their points. In addition, the FPs are clustered using a hierarchical clustering technique utilizing the complete linkage of a dendrogram to automate the process of finding the similarity thresholds and avoid setting them arbitrarily. Finally, the transfer learning is applied by freezing some layers of the proposed ensemble model and fine-tuning the rest leading to significant improvement in AGM compared to the best literature model.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".