Ensemble Methods for APS In-Flight Particle Temperature and Velocity Prediction Considering Torch Electrodes Ageing
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The nonlinear relationship between the input process parameters and in-flight particle characteristics of the atmospheric plasma spray (APS) is of paramount importance for coating properties design and quality. It is also known that the ageing of torch electrodes affects this relationship. In recent years, machine learning algorithms have proven to be able to take into account such complex nonlinear interactions. This work illustrates the application of ensemble methods to predict the in-flight particle temperature and velocity during an APS process considering torch electrodes ageing. Experiments were performed to record simultaneously the input process parameters, the in-flight powder particle characteristics and the electrodes usage time. Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting (GB) were used to rank and select the features for the APS process data recorded as the electrodes aged and the corresponding predictive models were compared. The time series aspect of the multivariate APS in-flight particle characteristics data is explored. Two strategies of time series embedding are considered. The first one simply embeds the attributes and the targets from the previous $$n$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>n</mml:mi> </mml:math> time segments considered without any modification; whereas the second strategy first performs differencing to make the time series stationary before embedding. For the present application, RF is found to be more suitable than GB since RF can predict both the in-flight particle velocity and temperature simultaneously, properly considering the interactions between the two targets. On the other hand, GB can only predict these two targets one at a time. The superior performance of both embedded predictive models and the feature rankings of them suggest that it is better to consider the APS data as time series for the in-flight particle characteristic prediction. In particular, it is demonstrated that it is advantageous to first make the time series stationary using the traditional differencing technique, even when modeling using RF.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it