Ensemble of deep convolutional neural networks is more accurate and reliable than board-certified ophthalmologists at detecting multiple diseases in retinal fundus photographs
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: To develop an algorithm to classify multiple retinal pathologies accurately and reliably from fundus photographs and to validate its performance against human experts. METHODS: We trained a deep convolutional ensemble (DCE), an ensemble of five convolutional neural networks (CNNs), to classify retinal fundus photographs into diabetic retinopathy (DR), glaucoma, age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and normal eyes. The CNN architecture was based on the InceptionV3 model, and initial weights were pretrained on the ImageNet dataset. We used 43 055 fundus images from 12 public datasets. Five trained ensembles were then tested on an 'unseen' set of 100 images. Seven board-certified ophthalmologists were asked to classify these test images. RESULTS: Board-certified ophthalmologists achieved a mean accuracy of 72.7% over all classes, while the DCE achieved a mean accuracy of 79.2% (p=0.03). The DCE had a statistically significant higher mean F1-score for DR classification compared with the ophthalmologists (76.8% vs 57.5%; p=0.01) and greater but statistically non-significant mean F1-scores for glaucoma (83.9% vs 75.7%; p=0.10), AMD (85.9% vs 85.2%; p=0.69) and normal eyes (73.0% vs 70.5%; p=0.39). The DCE had a greater mean agreement between accuracy and confident of 81.6% vs 70.3% (p<0.001). DISCUSSION: We developed a deep learning model and found that it could more accurately and reliably classify four categories of fundus images compared with board-certified ophthalmologists. This work provides proof-of-principle that an algorithm is capable of accurate and reliable recognition of multiple retinal diseases using only fundus photographs.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it