MPC-PF: Socially and Spatially Aware Object Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving Systems Using Potential Fields
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Predicting object motion behaviour is a challenging but crucial task for safe decision making and path planning for autonomous vehicles. It is challenging in large part due to the uncertain, multi-modal, and practically intractable set of possible agent-agent and agent-space interactions, especially in urban driving settings. Models solely based on constant velocity or social force have an inherent bias and may lead to inaccurate predictions across the prediction horizon whereas purely data driven approaches suffer from a lack of holistic set of rules governing predictions. We tackle this problem by introducing MPC-PF: a novel potential field-based trajectory predictor that incorporates social interaction via agent-agent and agent-space considerations and is able to tradeoff between inherent model biases across the prediction horizon. Through evaluation on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset and a variety of other common urban driving scenarios, we show that our model is capable of achieving state-of-the-art performance while producing accurate predictions for both short and long term timesteps. We also demonstrate the significance of our model architecture through an ablation study.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it