“As Inscrutable as the Sphinx, but Far More Dangerous”: Trends in Democratic–Personalist Conflict
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract While liberal democracies do not go to war with other democracies, they frequently engage in conflict with autocratic regimes. Little research has been conducted, however, to indicate what type of autocracies liberal democracies tend to target. This article demonstrates that liberal democracies are more likely to initiate conflict against personalist regimes, rather than autocracies with some form of collective leadership. I argue that, when a conflict of interest arises between a liberal democracy and a personalist regime, liberal foreign policy elites’ psychology and social identity work together to produce particular emotional responses, predisposing them to favor coercive action against personalist regimes. This paper presents new quantitative evidence regarding patterns in democratic–personalist conflict and introduces process evidence from US foreign policy decision-making during the Gulf Crisis.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it