The myth of wartime prosperity: Evidence from the Canadian experience
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper investigates therelationship between prosperity and national account data during wartime, focusing on Canada. In particular, we build off of existing literature arguing that military outlays must be excluded for real output measures to reasonably approximate economic prosperity. We analyse all non‐war components of Canadian gross national product during both world wars and estimate a novel price deflator for World War II in order to take into account wartime price controls. This allows us to obtain a new estimate of real output in Canada excluding military outlays. We then compare the trends in our new real output series with domestic private investment and stock market trends, all three of which either fell or grew at an anemic pace in Canada during both world wars. Combined, we argue that this provides evidence against the idea of wartime prosperity and more specifically, against the notion of World War II ending the Great Depression in Canada.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it