The Influence of the Ukraine Conflict on American Capital Market and Asset Price
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war not only strengthened the geopolitical turmoil, but also affected the global capital market. This paper collects information about the S&P 500 and other indexes; Comparison of yields on 2-year, 5-year and 10-year U.S. treasury bonds and VIX index; CPI, gold price, gold inventory and gold futures price, etc.; Crude oil production, crude oil prices and inventories, crude oil futures prices and other data before and after the war (February 23, 2021 to February 23 and 2022, February 24, 2022 to now). It aims to study the objective impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the US capital market and asset price trend. It is found that the volatility of the stock index of U.S. stocks increased at the beginning of the war, and the overall U-shaped; The VIX index also increased, meaning investors wanted to increase purchases of assets with safe-haven properties such as U.S. Treasuries and gold; The short-term increase in demand for gold futures and crude oil futures will increase the price of gold and crude oil, but will gradually return to the normal level as the war progresses.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it