Adversarial Danger Identification on Temporally Dynamic Graphs
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Multivariate time series forecasting plays an increasingly critical role in various applications, such as power management, smart cities, finance, and healthcare. Recent advances in temporal graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown promising results in multivariate time series forecasting due to their ability to characterize high-dimensional nonlinear correlations and temporal patterns. However, the vulnerability of deep neural networks (DNNs) constitutes serious concerns about using these models to make decisions in real-world applications. Currently, how to defend multivariate forecasting models, especially temporal GNNs, is overlooked. The existing adversarial defense studies are mostly in static and single-instance classification domains, which cannot apply to forecasting due to the generalization challenge and the contradiction issue. To bridge this gap, we propose an adversarial danger identification method for temporally dynamic graphs to effectively protect GNN-based forecasting models. Our method consists of three steps: 1) a hybrid GNN-based classifier to identify dangerous times; 2) approximate linear error propagation to identify the dangerous variates based on the high-dimensional linearity of DNNs; and 3) a scatter filter controlled by the two identification processes to reform time series with reduced feature erasure. Our experiments, including four adversarial attack methods and four state-of-the-art forecasting models, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in defending forecasting models against adversarial attacks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".