Understanding Uncertainty: How Lay Decision-makers Perceive and Interpret Uncertainty in Human-AI Decision Making
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Decision Support Systems (DSS) based on Machine Learning (ML) often aim to assist lay decision-makers, who are not math-savvy, in making high-stakes decisions. However, existing ML-based DSS are not always transparent about the probabilistic nature of ML predictions and how uncertain each prediction is. This lack of transparency could give lay decision-makers a false sense of reliability. Growing calls for AI transparency have led to increasing efforts to quantify and communicate model uncertainty. However, there are still gaps in knowledge regarding how and why the decision-makers utilize ML uncertainty information in their decision process. Here, we conducted a qualitative, think-aloud user study with 17 lay decision-makers who interacted with three different DSS: 1) interactive visualization, 2) DSS based on an ML model that provides predictions without uncertainty information, and 3) the same DSS with uncertainty information. Our qualitative analysis found that communicating uncertainty about ML predictions forced participants to slow down and think analytically about their decisions. This in turn made participants more vigilant, resulting in reduction in over-reliance on ML-based DSS. Our work contributes empirical knowledge on how lay decision-makers perceive, interpret, and make use of uncertainty information when interacting with DSS. Such foundational knowledge informs the design of future ML-based DSS that embrace transparent uncertainty communication.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.013 | 0.062 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.008 | 0.010 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".