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Record W4362640568 · doi:10.3390/jrfm16040226

Enhancing Financial Market Analysis and Prediction with Emotion Corpora and News Co-Occurrence Network

2023· article· en· W4362640568 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Shawn McCarthy, Gita Alaghband

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of risk and financial management · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicStock Market Forecasting Methods
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsCategorizationSentiment analysisInvestment decisionsFinancial marketInvestment (military)Asset (computer security)Investment strategyFinancial servicesBusinessFinanceComputer scienceArtificial intelligenceBehavioral economicsMarket liquidityPolitical science

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This study employs an improved natural language processing algorithm to analyze over 500,000 financial news articles from sixteen major sources across 12 sectors, with the top 10 companies in each sector. The analysis identifies shifting economic activity based on emotional news sentiment and develops a news co-occurrence network to show relationships between companies even across sectors. This study created an improved corpus and algorithm to identify emotions in financial news. The improved method identified 18 additional emotions beyond what was previously analyzed. The researchers labeled financial terms from Investopedia to validate the categorization performance of the new method. Using the improved algorithm, we analyzed how emotions in financial news relate to market movement of pairs of companies. We found a moderate correlation (above 60%) between emotion sentiment and market movement. To validate this finding, we further checked the correlation coefficients between sentiment alone, and found that consumer discretionary, consumer staples, financials, industrials, and technology sectors showed similar trends. Our findings suggest that emotional sentiment analysis provide valuable insights for financial market analysis and prediction. The technical analysis framework developed in this study can be integrated into a larger investment strategy, enabling organizations to identify potential opportunities and develop informed strategies. The insights derived from the co-occurrence model may be leveraged by companies to strengthen their risk management functions, making it an asset within a comprehensive investment strategy.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.010
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.005
Threshold uncertainty score0.011

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.010
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0050.003
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0020.003
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.032
GPT teacher head0.315
Teacher spread0.283 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations11
Published2023
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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