Improving Protein Structure Prediction with Extended Sequence Similarity Searches and Deep-Learning-Based Refinement in CASP15
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The human predictor team PEZYFoldings got third place with GDT-TS (First place with the Assessor’s formulae) in the single-domain category and tenth place in the multimer category in CASP15. In this paper, I describe the exact method used by PEZYFoldings in competitions. As AlphaFold2 and AlphaFold-Multimer, developed by DeepMind, are state-of-the-art structure prediction tools, it was assumed that enhancing the input and output of the tools was an effective strategy to obtain the highest accuracy for structure prediction. Therefore, I used additional tools and databases to collect evolutionarily related sequences and introduced a deep-learning-based model in the refinement step. In addition to these modifications, manual interventions were performed to address various tasks. Detailed analyses were performed after the competition to identify the main contributors to performance. Comparing the number of evolutionarily related sequences I used with those of the other teams that provided AlphaFold2’s baseline predictions revealed that an extensive sequence similarity search was one of the main contributors. The impact of the refinement model was minimal (p <0.05 for the TM score). In addition, I noticed that I had gained large Z-scores with the subunits of H1137, for which I performed manual domain parsing considering the interfaces between the subunits. This finding implies that the manual intervention contributed to my performance. The prediction performance was low when I could not identify the evolutionarily related sequences. T1130 is an example; however, other teams can model better structures. Based on the discussions from the CASP15 conference, the two teams that ranked higher than PEZYFoldings had some hits for T1130. This may be because T1130 is a eukaryotic protein, whereas the additional databases used were mainly from metagenomic sequences, which primarily consist of prokaryotic proteins. These results highlight the opportunities for improvement in 1) multimer prediction, 2) building larger and more diverse databases, and 3) developing tools to predict structures from primary sequences alone. In addition, transferring the manual intervention process to automation is a future concern.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".