Simultaneous multi-crop land suitability prediction from remote sensing data using semi-supervised learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Land suitability models for Canada are currently based on single-crop inventories and expert opinion. We present a data-driven multi-layer perceptron that simultaneously predicts the land suitability of several crops in Canada, including barley, peas, spring wheat, canola, oats, and soy. Available crop yields from 2013-2020 are downscaled to the farm level by masking the district level crop yield data to focus only on areas where crops are cultivated and leveraging soil-climate-landscape variables obtained from Google Earth Engine for crop yield prediction. This new semi-supervised learning approach can accommodate data from different spatial resolutions and enables training with unlabelled data. The incorporation of a crop indicator function further allows for the training of a multi-crop model that can capture the interdependences and correlations between various crops, thereby leading to more accurate predictions. Through k-fold cross-validation, we show that compared to the single crop models, our multi-crop model could produce up to a 2.82 fold reduction in mean absolute error for any particular crop. We found that barley, oats, and mixed grains were more tolerant to soil-climate-landscape variations and could be grown in many regions of Canada, while non-grain crops were more sensitive to environmental factors. Predicted crop suitability was associated with a region's growing season length, which supports climate change projections that regions of northern Canada will become more suitable for agricultural use. The proposed multi-crop model could facilitate assessment of the suitability of northern lands for crop cultivation and be incorporated into cost-benefit analyses.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".