Novel Soft-Computing Approach to Better Predict Flexible Pavement Roughness
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Road infrastructures are fundamental parts of peoples’ lives, allowing them to access various destinations and activities. Accordingly, infrastructure should be in an appropriate condition. A pavement maintenance plan should be optimized, and pavement condition should be predicted accurately to obtain optimal pavement maintenance solutions. Therefore, the prediction of pavement conditions with high accuracy has been an immense concern. This study aims to introduce a new approach to accurately predict pavement international roughness index (IRI) over the long term. To this end, all the vital parameters, including initial IRI, pavement age, lane width, traffic loadings, structural characteristics, climatic features, and pavement distresses, are considered. With all the vital parameters, the prediction problem includes 58 variables. Thus, the application of a proper feature-selection technique is vital. To this end, a novel hybrid feature-selection method is introduced by a combination of arithmetic optimization algorithm and stochastic gradient descent regression (AOA-SGDR). Moreover, the performance of the proposed feature-selection method is compared with Lasso and all features. Five machine-learning algorithms, including random forest regression (RFR), support vector machine, multi-layer perceptron, decision-tree regression, and multiple linear regression, are employed for the prediction process. By employing AOA-SGDR, the average testing-data mean absolute error (MAE) reduces by at least 7.92%. Meanwhile, RFR provides the highest accuracy, with average testing-data MAE of 0.095 m/km. Moreover, analyzing the parameters indicates that initial IRI, pavement age, equivalent single axle load (ESAL), and structural number (SN) have the most significant relative influence on IRI.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".