Prediction of Moderna Adjusted Closing Stock Price Trend Using ARIMA Model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Taking a glance at the pandemic, the adjusted closing stock price trend of Moderna company as an excellent sample is worth studying whether the statistical method of prediction can be used in an unnormal case. This paper examines whether the ARIMA model forecasting tool analyzes Moderna's adjusted closing stock price trend between the seventh of December twenty eighteen to the first of November twenty-two. The historical data of the closed stock price of Moderna Inc was collected from Yahoo Finance. Incorporating evidence from academic papers and the processing of computing the differences, judgement of stationary data and parameter selection, this study illustrates that the ARIMA model is a useful statistical tool to predict the stock trend. It argues for the limitations of using the ARIMA model and offers future outlooks. Ultimately, ARIMA [4, 1, 2] offers an appropriate model for summarizing the forecasting of the adjusted closing stock trend of Moderna Inc under the limited data in this case.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".