A holistic and proactive approach to forecasting cyber threats
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Traditionally, cyber-attack detection relies on reactive, assistive techniques, where pattern-matching algorithms help human experts to scan system logs and network traffic for known virus or malware signatures. Recent research has introduced effective Machine Learning (ML) models for cyber-attack detection, promising to automate the task of detecting, tracking and blocking malware and intruders. Much less effort has been devoted to cyber-attack prediction, especially beyond the short-term time scale of hours and days. Approaches that can forecast attacks likely to happen in the longer term are desirable, as this gives defenders more time to develop and share defensive actions and tools. Today, long-term predictions of attack waves are mostly based on the subjective perceptiveness of experienced human experts, which can be impaired by the scarcity of cyber-security expertise. This paper introduces a novel ML-based approach that leverages unstructured big data and logs to forecast the trend of cyber-attacks at a large scale, years in advance. To this end, we put forward a framework that utilises a monthly dataset of major cyber incidents in 36 countries over the past 11 years, with new features extracted from three major categories of big data sources, namely the scientific research literature, news, blogs, and tweets. Our framework not only identifies future attack trends in an automated fashion, but also generates a threat cycle that drills down into five key phases that constitute the life cycle of all 42 known cyber threats.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".