Forecasting Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Light-Duty Vehicles with Different Machine Learning Algorithms
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate estimation of fuel consumption and emissions is crucial for assessing the impact of materials and stringent emission control techniques on climate change, particularly in the transportation industry, which accounts for a significant portion of global greenhouse gases and hazardous pollutants emissions. To address these concerns, the government of Canada has collected a large sensor-based dataset containing detailed information on 7384 light-duty vehicles from 2017 to 2021, with the goal of reducing CO2 emissions by 40–45% by 2030. To this end, various researchers worldwide have developed vehicle emissions and consumption models to comply with these targets and achieve the Canadian government’s ambitious objectives. In this work, we propose the development of boosting and other regression models to predict carbon dioxide emissions for light-duty vehicle designs, with the aim of creating ensemble learning models that leverage vehicle specifications to forecast emissions. Our proposed boosting model is capable of accurately predicting CO2 emissions, even with only one car attribute as input. Moreover, our regression models, in conjunction with the boosting algorithm, can effectively make predictions from various vehicle inputs. Our proposed technique, categorical boosting (Catboost), provides critical insights into transportation-generated air pollution, offering valuable recommendations for both vehicle users and manufacturers. Importantly, Catboost performs data processing in less time and with less memory than other algorithms proposed in the literature. Future research efforts should focus on developing higher performance models and expanding datasets to further improve the accuracy of predictions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".