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Record W4378832727 · doi:10.1111/jtsa.12700

Nonlinear kernel mode‐based regression for dependent data

2023· article· en· W4378832727 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Time Series Analysis · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicStatistical Methods and Inference
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Victoria
FundersUniversity of Victoria
KeywordsMathematicsEstimatorKernel (algebra)Kernel regressionVariable kernel density estimationApplied mathematicsStatisticsKernel methodMathematical optimizationComputer scienceArtificial intelligence

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Under stationary ‐mixing dependent samples, we in this article develop a novel nonlinear regression based on mode value for time series sequences to achieve robustness without sacrificing estimation efficiency. The estimation process is built on a kernel‐based objective function with a constant bandwidth (tuning parameter) that is independent of sample size and can be adjusted to maximize efficiency. The asymptotic distribution of the resultant estimator is established under suitable conditions, and the convergence rate is demonstrated to be the same as that in nonlinear mean regression. To numerically estimate the kernel mode‐based regression, we develop a modified modal‐expectation‐maximization algorithm in conjunction with Taylor expansion. A robust Wald‐type test statistic derived from the resulting estimator is also provided, along with its asymptotic distribution for the null and alternative hypotheses. The local robustness of the proposed estimation procedure is studied using influence function analysis, and the good finite sample performance of the newly suggested model is verified through Monte Carlo simulations. We finally combine the recommended kernel mode‐based regression with neural networks to develop a kernel mode‐based neural networks model, the performance of which is evidenced by an empirical examination of exchange rate prediction.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.003
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.896
Threshold uncertainty score0.526

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.003
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.145
GPT teacher head0.439
Teacher spread0.294 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it