Predicting extreme events in the stock market using generative adversarial networks
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurately predicting extreme stock market fluctuations at the right time will allow traders and investors to make better-informed investment decisions and practice more efficient financial risk management. However, extreme stock market events are particularly hard to model because of their scarce and erratic nature. Moreover, strong trading strategies, market stress tests, and portfolio optimization largely rely on sound data. While the application of generative adversarial networks (GANs) for stock forecasting has been an active area of research, there is still a gap in the literature on using GANs for extreme market movement prediction and simulation. In this study, we proposed a framework based on GANs to efficiently model stock prices’ extreme movements. By creating synthetic real-looking data, the framework simulated multiple possible market-evolution scenarios, which can be used to improve the forecasting quality of future market variations. The fidelity and predictive power of the generated data were tested by quantitative and qualitative metrics. Our experimental results on S&P 500 and five emerging market stock data show that the proposed framework is capable of producing a realistic time series by recovering important properties from real data. The results presented in this work suggest that the underlying dynamics of extreme stock market variations can be captured efficiently by some state-of-the-art GAN architectures. This conclusion has great practical implications for investors, traders, and corporations willing to anticipate the future trends of their financial assets. The proposed framework can be used as a simulation tool to mimic stock market behaviors.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.015 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it