Economically exhaustible resources in an oligopoly-fringe model with renewables
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We consider a game between oligopolistic and fringe suppliers of fossil fuel from an exhaustible resource, and producers of a renewable perfect substitute. Extraction costs are stock-dependent and strictly convex in the rate of extraction. We characterize the open-loop Nash equilibrium analytically and perform numerical simulations with calibrated parameter values. The effects of our cost assumptions are (i) to have asymptotic economical instead of physical exhaustion of the non-renewable resource and (ii) the existence of a limit-pricing phase in which both fossil and renewables suppliers are active. We decompose the welfare loss of imperfect competition in a conservation and a sequence effect, and show that both can be substantial: 3.8 and 4.2 trillion US$ in the calibrated model, respectively. We also examine Green Paradox effects and find that initial carbon emissions depend non-monotonically on the renewables subsidy rate.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it