MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W4385732882 · doi:10.3390/cli11080169

Super Climate Events

2023· article· en· W4385732882 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueClimate · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicClimate variability and models
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsClimate changeEnvironmental scienceJet streamClimatologyWinter stormArcticSnowAbrupt climate changeStormEffects of global warmingGlobal warmingGeographyOceanographyGeologyMeteorologyJet (fluid)

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

New environmental extremes are currently underway and are much greater than those in previous records. These are mostly regional, singular events that are caused by global change/local weather combinations and are larger than the impact of linear temperature increases projected using climate models. These new states cannot easily be assigned probabilities because they often have no historical analogs. Thus, the term super climate extremes is used. Examples are the loss of sea ice and ecosystem reorganization in northern marine Alaska, heatwave extreme in western Canada, and the loss of snow in Greenland. New combined extreme occurrences, which are reported almost daily, lead to a new, higher level of climate change urgency. The loss of sea ice in 2018–2019 was a result of warmer Arctic temperatures and changes in the jet stream. They resulted in a chain of impacts from southerly winds, the northward movement of predatory fish, and the reduction of food security for coastal communities. Record temperatures were measured in southwestern British Columbia following previous drought conditions, a confluence of two storm tracks, and warming through atmospheric subsidence. Greenland’s losses had clear skies and jet stream events. Such new extremes are present indicators of climate change. Their impacts result from the interaction between physical and ecological processes, and they justify the creation of a new climate change category based on super climate extremes.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.088
Threshold uncertainty score0.996

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0050.034

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.026
GPT teacher head0.265
Teacher spread0.239 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it