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Record W4385830349 · doi:10.3138/utlj-2023-0006

Problems with Probability

2023· article· en· W4385830349 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
venuePublished in a venue whose home country is Canada.

Bibliographic record

VenueUniversity of Toronto Law Journal · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicArtificial Intelligence in Law
Canadian institutionsVector InstituteUniversity of Toronto
Fundersnot available
KeywordsOutcome (game theory)Settlement (finance)Probabilistic logicLiabilityTriageResolution (logic)Balance (ability)Legal liabilityComputer scienceActuarial scienceArtificial intelligenceOperations researchEconomicsPsychologyLawPolitical scienceMicroeconomicsEngineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Some countries have explored the idea of using artificial intelligence (AI) systems to help triage the backlog of cases and facilitate the resolution of civil disputes. In theory, AI can accomplish this by establishing the facts of cases and predicting the outcomes of disputes. But the use of AI in the courtroom gives rise to new problems. AI technologies help solve prediction problems. These solutions are typically expressed as probabilities. How should judges incorporate these predictions in their decision making? There is no obviously correct approach for converting probabilistic predictions of legal outcomes into binary legal decisions. Any approach that does so has benefits and drawbacks. Importantly, a balance of probabilities approach – where liability is established if the AI predicts a likelihood of liability greater than 50 per cent and not otherwise – is not suitable when converting a predicted outcome into an actual outcome. Adopting this approach would significantly alter the outcomes of legal cases and have a dramatic and disruptive effect upon the law. The most notable disruption would be observed in settlement behaviour and outcomes.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.899
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.043
GPT teacher head0.273
Teacher spread0.230 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it