Machine learning models coupled with empirical mode decomposition for simulating monthly and yearly streamflows: a case study of three watersheds in Ontario, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper presents a novel approach for enhancing long-term runoff simulations through the integration of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) with four machine learning (ML) models: ensemble, support vector machine (SVM), convolutional neural networks (CNN), and artificial neural networks with backpropagation (ANN-BP). The proposed methodology uses EMD to decompose precipitation and temperature time-series into intrinsic mode functions, thereby revealing underlying data patterns. Subsequently, these components are incorporated into the ML models to simulate the runoff time-series. The effectiveness of the hybrid models is evaluated using streamflow runoff data obtained from the Grand, Winnipeg, and Moosonee Rivers in Ontario, Canada. Four widely used performance indices, namely, correlation coefficient, root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute relative error, and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, are employed to assess the models’ performance. The results demonstrate that the hybrid EMD-ML models exhibit significantly superior performance compared with the standalone ML methods. During the validation phase, the EMD-Ensemble, EMD-SVM, EMD-CNN, and EMD-ANN-BP models exhibit notable reductions in the RMSEs of monthly streamflow estimates for the Grand River, amounting to 11%, 22%, 8%, and 33%, respectively, compared with their non-EMD counterparts. Additionally, these hybrid models exhibit improved RMSEs for yearly simulations in the Winnipeg River, with reductions of 54%, 0.08%, 6%, and 4.5% respectively. To further enhance the accuracy of monthly and yearly streamflow estimates, an SVM-recursive feature elimination technique is employed to select a more appropriate EMD dataset in all study cases. This research underscores the potential of integrating EMD with ML models to enhance long-term runoff simulations. The outcomes highlight the superior performance of the hybrid EMD-ML models, demonstrating their ability in generating lower biases than the standalone ML methods. These findings hold significant implications for the field of computational fluid mechanics and can contribute to the understanding of hydrological processes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".