High-Resolution Regional Climate Projections for Ontario and the Canadian Great Lakes Basins
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The IPCC-endorsed multiple model/scenario approach and a state-of-the-science combined downscaling methodology were applied to project the future climate changes over Ontario and the Canadian Great Lakes basins. Significant warming is expected across the province under all RCPs. Relative to 1986–2005 averages, the highest temperature rise is projected to occur in Ontario’s Far North, 7.3°C warmer by the 2080s. The temperature over the Great Lakes Basin is projected to increase by 1.3–5.7°C. Ontario’s annual total precipitation is projected to increase 86.9 mm (11%) by the 2080s under RCP 8.5, while summer precipitation is projected to decrease by 32.9 mm (12%) and winter precipitation to increase by 52.4 mm (48%). In the Great Lakes Basin, the greatest increase in annual average temperature (1.7–5.3°C) is projected to occur in the Lake Superior sub-basin by the 2080s. Winter warming is projected to exceed summer warming in all sub-basins. Annual total precipitation is projected to increase in all five sub-basins, with the largest increase in the Lake Superior sub-basin. Summer (winter) is projected to be drier (wetter) across the entire Great Lakes Basin. These projected changes could have implications on future water levels in the Great Lakes and many aspects over the study area.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".