Calculating the effects of increasing the VAT on ornamental plant products in the Netherlands and the EU : update for the situation in 2023
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Ornamental horticultural products are taxed at a reduced VAT rate in the Netherlands (9% rather than 21%) as well as in 14 other EU countries. Increasing VAT would have a negative impact on turnover and employment in the supply chain. These calculations show that a VAT increase in the Netherlands would lead to a loss of around €200 million in turnover in the ornamentals sector at wholesale prices (-1.6%). If VAT were to be increased in other EU countries too, this would have a particularly significant impact on the Netherlands’ exports and thus on primary production. In this scenario, the drop in turnover for the ornamentals sector (at wholesale prices) would be €930 million (-7%). The expected impact on the government’s VAT revenue would be partly offset by fewer flowers and plants being bought, and in the shorter term by a decline in tax receipts and social insurance premiums from businesses and employees, along with an increase in unemployment benefits being paid out.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.013 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it