Learning to predict prostate cancer recurrence from tissue images
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Roughly 30% of men with prostate cancer who undergo radical prostatectomy will suffer biochemical cancer recurrence (BCR). Accurately predicting which patients will experience BCR could identify who would benefit from increased surveillance or adjuvant therapy. Unfortunately, no current method can effectively predict this. We develop and evaluate PathCLR, a novel semi-supervised method that learns a model that can use hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained tissue microarrays (TMAs) to predict prostate cancer recurrence within 5 years after diagnosis. The learning process involves 2 sequential steps: PathCLR (a) first employs self-supervised learning to generate effective feature representations of the input images, then (b) feeds these learned features into a fully supervised neural network classifier to learn a model for predicting BCR. We conducted training and evaluation using 2 large prostate cancer datasets: (1) the Cooperative Prostate Cancer Tissue Resource (CPCTR) with 374 patients, including 189 who experienced BCR, and (2) the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) prostate cancer dataset of 646 patients, with 451 patients having BCR. PathCLR’s (10-fold cross-validation) F1 score was 0.61 for CPCTR and 0.85 for JHU. This was statistically superior (paired t-test with P<.05) to the best-learned model that relied solely on clinicopathological features, including PSA level, primary and secondary Gleason Grade, etc. We attribute the improvement of PathCLR over models using only clinicopathological features to its utilization of both learned latent representations of tissue core images and clinicopathological features. This finding suggests that there is essential predictive information in tissue images at the time of surgery that goes beyond the knowledge obtained from reported clinicopathological features, helping predict the patient’s 5-year outcome.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it