Estimating air methane and total hydrocarbon concentrations in Alberta, Canada using machine learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fugitive emission sources are significant contributors to methane emissions, and time series data on reported emissions from such sources remain underutilized. The Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) has been collecting air quality data since 1986, including methane and total hydrocarbons concentration data. However, this data has not been thoroughly analyzed to forecast air quality trends. Our analysis of the data shows that average methane concentrations measured at most Alberta airshed stations exceed the global average, and the data exhibits increasing and decreasing trends depending on the station. We compared the predictive performance of three machine learning methods: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network, Fully-Connected Neural Network (FC-NN), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), using the AER methane concentration data. Our results indicate that the LSTM neural network model outperforms the other two methods. Also, our findings suggest that the AER methane concentration data can be effectively analyzed and utilized to forecast air quality trends in the region.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".