AusLAMP shines a light on space weather hazards in the Australian high-voltage power grid
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
A geomagnetic storm, also known as a geomagnetic disturbance (GMD), is a major disturbance of the Earth’s magnetic field caused by solar activity. A geomagnetic storm induces electric currents in the Earth that feed into power lines through substation neutral earthing, causing instabilities and even blackouts in electricity transmission systems. The intensity of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) is closely associated with the electrical conductivity of the surrounding geology. In this paper, we analyse one of the most well-known geomagnetic storms, the 1989 “Québec storm” and 688 magnetotelluric (MT) survey sites from the Australian Lithospheric Architecture Magnetotelluric Project (AusLAMP) to gain insight into the space weather hazard posed for Australia's modern-day power grids. Transmission lines may exhibit local maxima at differing times depending on their spatial orientation and length with respect to the time-varying magnetic field. Localised peak voltages over 100 V can be observed on some individual lines. This assessment identifies the distribution of GICs in south-eastern Australia for the 1989 Québec storm and transmission lines that are more vulnerable to GICs. It is relevant to national strategies and risk assessment procedures to mitigate space weather hazards in the Australian high-voltage power grid and the design of a more resilient power transmission system. We also analyse the 2015 “St Patrick’s Day storm” to study under-estimation of the space weather hazard associated with the band-limited geomagnetic data and MT data sets.Key points The subsurface geology has a great influence on the intensity of geomagnetically induced electric fields, potentially causing up to three orders of magnitude difference between conductive basins and resistive cratonic regions in south-eastern Australia.Analysis using the 1989 “Québec geomagnetic storm” and AusLAMP magnetotelluric data shows the intensity of the geoelectric fields in south-eastern Australia could reach up to 5 [V/km].Geomagnetically induced voltages in the Australian high-voltage power grid could be in excess of 100 V in some transmission lines for a geomagnetic storm with intensity comparable with the 1989 Québec geomagnetic storm.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.005 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it