Molecular and machine learning approaches to study the impact of climatic factors on the evolution of cranberry fruit rot
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction Cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon) is an important crop grown in the United States and Canada, with the province of Québec being the world’s largest producer of organic cranberry. However, cranberry fruit rot (CFR), caused by 12 fungal species, has become a major issue affecting yield. Methods A molecular detection tool was used to detect the presence of the 12 CFR fungi and evaluate CFR species across three farms with different fungicide strategies in Québec. The incidence and frequency of CFR fungi were evaluated for 2020 and compared with 2018 data from the same farms in Québec. Machine-learning models were used to determine the possibility of explaining CFR disease and species based on climate, and analyze the effects of weather variables on CFR presence andprimary fungal species. Results The most predominant CFR species remained the same in both years, with Godronia cassandrae and Coleophoma empetri being the two most common, but some species showed changes in relative abundance. Furthermore, this study examined the diversity variations in 2018 and 2020, with data showing an overall increase in diversity over the period. The results showed that fungicide applications impacted the species composition of CFR among the farms. Five weather variables (daily snow on the ground (cm), total daily precipitation (mm), daily atmospheric pressure (kPa), daily relative humidity (%) and daily temperature (°C)) were selected and found to contribute differently to the model with atmospheric pressure being the most important. Surprisingly, temperature and precipitations did not influence much the incidence of fungal pathogen species and each CFR species behaved differently in response to environmental factors. Discussion Overall, this study highlights the complexity of predicting CFR disease, as caused by 12 fungi, and of developing effective disease management strategies for CFR.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".