Radiographic Progression in Sacroiliac Joints in Patients With Axial Spondyloarthritis: Results From a <scp>Five‐Year</scp> International Observational Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate progression from nonradiographic (nr-) to radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (r-axSpA) over 5 years in patients with recently diagnosed (≤1 year) axSpA fulfilling the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS) classification criteria. METHODS: A prospsective, observational study (Patients with Axial Spondyloarthritis: Multi-Country Registry of Clinical Characteristics) was conducted in rheumatology practices in 29 countries. Baseline and follow-up radiographs of sacroiliac joints were centrally evaluated by three readers according to the grading system of the modified New York criteria for patients initially classified as nr-axSpA. Radiographic progression from nr-axSpA to r-axSpA was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Cox proportional regression analyses for progression from nr-axSpA to r-axSpA were also conducted. RESULTS: Among 2,165 patients with axSpA, 1,612 (74%) were classified as having r-axSpA (1,050 [65%]) or nr-axSpA (562 [35%]) by central reading. Of 246 patients with nr-axSpA (mean [SD] symptom duration: 4.4 [6.2] years) who had at least one follow-up sacroiliac joint radiograph, progression from nr-axSpA to r-axSpA at any follow-up visit was observed in 40 patients (16%) over 5 years. Mean time to radiographic progression was 2.4 years (ranging from 0.9 to 5.1 years). Progression to r-axSpA was associated with male sex (hazard ratio [HR] 3.16 [95% CI 1.22-8.17]), fulfillment of the imaging arm of the ASAS classification criteria (HR 6.64 [1.37-32.25]), and good response to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (HR 4.66 [1.23-17.71]). CONCLUSION: 16% of patients with nr-axSpA progressed to r-axSpA within 5 years. Male sex, fulfillment of the imaging arm of the ASAS criteria, and good response to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were predictors of radiographic progression in patients with recently diagnosed axSpA.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".