Simulations of multiple breeding strategy scenarios in common bean for assessing genomic selection accuracy and model updating
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction model across different traits, parent population sizes, and breeding strategies when estimating breeding values in common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris). Genomic selection was implemented to make selections within a breeding cycle and compared across five different breeding strategies (single seed descent, mass selection, pedigree method, modified pedigree method, and bulk breeding) following 10 breeding cycles. The model was trained on a simulated population of recombinant inbreds genotyped for 1010 single nucleotide polymorphism markers including 38 known quantitative trait loci identified in the literature. These QTL included 11 for seed yield, eight for white mold disease incidence, and 19 for days to flowering. Simulation results revealed that realized accuracies fluctuate depending on the factors investigated: trait genetic architecture, breeding strategy, and the number of initial parents used to begin the first breeding cycle. Trait architecture and breeding strategy appeared to have a larger impact on accuracy than the initial number of parents. Generally, maximum accuracies (in terms of the correlation between true and estimated breeding value) were consistently achieved under a mass selection strategy, pedigree method, and single seed descent method depending on the simulation parameters being tested. This study also investigated model updating, which involves retraining the prediction model with a new set of genotypes and phenotypes that have a closer relation to the population being tested. While it has been repeatedly shown that model updating generally improves prediction accuracy, it benefited some breeding strategies more than others. For low heritability traits (e.g., yield), conventional phenotype-based selection methods showed consistent rates of genetic gain, but genetic gain under genomic selection reached a plateau after fewer cycles. This plateauing is likely a cause of faster fixation of alleles and a diminishing of genetic variance when selections are made based on estimated breeding value as opposed to phenotype.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it