Model-based standardization using multiple imputation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: When studying the association between treatment and a clinical outcome, a parametric multivariable model of the conditional outcome expectation is often used to adjust for covariates. The treatment coefficient of the outcome model targets a conditional treatment effect. Model-based standardization is typically applied to average the model predictions over the target covariate distribution, and generate a covariate-adjusted estimate of the marginal treatment effect. METHODS: The standard approach to model-based standardization involves maximum-likelihood estimation and use of the non-parametric bootstrap. We introduce a novel, general-purpose, model-based standardization method based on multiple imputation that is easily applicable when the outcome model is a generalized linear model. We term our proposed approach multiple imputation marginalization (MIM). MIM consists of two main stages: the generation of synthetic datasets and their analysis. MIM accommodates a Bayesian statistical framework, which naturally allows for the principled propagation of uncertainty, integrates the analysis into a probabilistic framework, and allows for the incorporation of prior evidence. RESULTS: We conduct a simulation study to benchmark the finite-sample performance of MIM in conjunction with a parametric outcome model. The simulations provide proof-of-principle in scenarios with binary outcomes, continuous-valued covariates, a logistic outcome model and the marginal log odds ratio as the target effect measure. When parametric modeling assumptions hold, MIM yields unbiased estimation in the target covariate distribution, valid coverage rates, and similar precision and efficiency than the standard approach to model-based standardization. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate that multiple imputation can be used to marginalize over a target covariate distribution, providing appropriate inference with a correctly specified parametric outcome model and offering statistical performance comparable to that of the standard approach to model-based standardization.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.042 | 0.097 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".