Case-Base Neural Network: Survival analysis with time-varying, higher-order interactions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the context of survival analysis, data-driven neural network-based methods have been developed to model complex covariate effects. While these methods may provide better predictive performance than regression-based approaches, not all can model time-varying interactions and complex baseline hazards. To address this, we propose Case-Base Neural Networks (CBNNs) as a new approach that combines the case-base sampling framework with flexible neural network architectures. Using a novel sampling scheme and data augmentation to naturally account for censoring, we construct a feed-forward neural network that includes time as an input. CBNNs predict the probability of an event occurring at a given moment to estimate the full hazard function. We compare the performance of CBNNs to regression and neural network-based survival methods in a simulation and three case studies using two time-dependent metrics. First, we examine performance on a simulation involving a complex baseline hazard and time-varying interactions to assess all methods, with CBNN outperforming competitors. Then, we apply all methods to three real data applications, with CBNNs outperforming the competing models in two studies and showing similar performance in the third. Our results highlight the benefit of combining case-base sampling with deep learning to provide a simple and flexible framework for data-driven modeling of single event survival outcomes that estimates time-varying effects and a complex baseline hazard by design. An R package is available at https://github.com/Jesse-Islam/cbnn.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.019 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".