Effect of a severe cold spell on overwintering survival of an invasive forest insect pest
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Cold temperatures can play a significant role in the range and impact of pest insects. Severe cold events can reduce the size of insect outbreaks and perhaps even cause outbreaks to end. Measuring the precise impact of cold events, however, can be difficult because estimates of insect mortality are often made at the end of the winter season. In late January, 2023 long-term climate models predicted a significant cold event to occur over eastern North America. We used this event to evaluate the immediate impact on hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand) overwintering mortality at four sites on the northern edge of the insects invaded range in eastern North America. We observed complete mortality, partial mortality and no effects on hemlock woolly adelgid mortality that correlated with the location of populations and strength of the cold event. Our data showed support for preconditioning of overwintering adelgids having an impact on their overwintering survival following this severe cold event. Finally, we compared the climatic conditions at our sites to historical weather data and previous observations of mortality in Nova Scotia. The cold event observed in February 2023 resulted in the coldest temperatures observed at these sites, including the period within which hemlock woolly adelgid invaded, suggesting cold conditions, especially under anthropogenic climate forcing, may not be a limiting factor in determining the ultimate northern range of hemlock woolly adelgid in eastern North America.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".