The Ukraine War and nuclear sharing in NATO
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Russian nuclear sabre-rattling following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine has reinvigorated debates over NATO deterrence. One of its key components—nuclear sharing—has been in place since September 1954, but support for it within the alliance has varied over time. Indeed, although Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey host American gravity bombs on their territory, there were fears during the 2010s that some of them would follow Canada, Greece and the United Kingdom's example and withdraw from the scheme. By examining why and how NATO's nuclear-sharing arrangements have changed since inception, we argue that they consistently serve deterrence, signalling, alliance cohesion and burden-sharing goals, which make them hard to dismantle. However, we also demonstrate, through our survey of post-Cold War policies, official statements and public debates, that there is more room in a low threat environment for political contestation within host states. Accordingly, nuclear sharing requires a high threat environment to escape domestic opposition, which effectively returned in 2022, cementing the nuclear status quo.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".