Improving demand forecasting for customers with missing downstream data in intermittent demand supply chains with supervised multivariate clustering
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In a collaborative supply chain arrangement like vendor‐managed inventory, information on product demand at the point of sale is expected to be shared among members of the supply chain. However, in practice, obtaining such information can be costly, and some members may be unwilling or unable to provide the necessary access to the data. As such, large collaborative supply chains with multiple members may operate under a mixed‐information scenario where point‐of‐sale demand information is not known for all customers. Other sources of demand information exist and are becoming more available along supply chains using Industry 4.0 technologies and can serve as a substitute, but the data may be noisy, distorted, and partially missing. Under mixed information, leveraging existing customers' point‐of‐sale demand to improve the intermittent demand forecast of customers with missing information has yet to be explored. We propose a supervised demand forecasting method that uses multivariate time series clustering to map multiple sources of demand data. Members with missing downstream demand data have their resulting demand forecast improved by averaging over customers with similar delivery patterns for their final demand forecast. Our results show up to a 10% accuracy improvement over traditional intermittent demand forecasting methods with missing information.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it