Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding factors that drive asset demand is central to explaining movements in long-term real interest rates.In this paper, we begin by documenting that much of the increase in the demand for assets in the US in the 30 years prior to Covid represented greater desire to hold assets by households of given age and income levels.For example, if we focus on the 55-64 age group, its wealth-to-income ratio increased by 45-55%, depending on whether housing is included or not.We then develop a model of asset demands which combines retirement motives and inter-temporal substitution motives to quantitatively explore different factors that may have contributed to such an increase.Our findings suggest that decreasing interest rates likely led to a substantial increase in demand for retirement wealth.We also explore some of the across group heterogeneity and show how social security may explain why the lowest income groups did not follow the general trend.Finally, we discuss macroeconomic implications of long-run asset demands that are a decreasing function of interest rates.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it