The Future Demand and Supply of Critical Minerals
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This essay explores the future of global supply and demand for critical metals, and how international markets could adapt in the face of potential changes. Whereas demand is expected to increase rapidly due to accelerated electrification and the growing need for grid-scale electricity storage, increased supply through new mining projects will take time and deliberation, and will need to address a range of environmental and social challenges. Beyond primary extraction, the existing concentration of production and refining within a small number of countries will also create new challenges for supply chain security. Three significant insights emerge: more global transparency and accountability are needed to safeguard environmentally and socially responsible mining as the industry grows; large-scale recycling of minerals and metals is needed to lessen the demand for primary mineral extraction; rapid technological innovation, including the development of new batteries, is needed to shift demand towards less expensive, less scarce and potentially less harmful materials. Governments can play an important role in addressing negative externalities associated with increased mining, while ensuring that future economic benefits from mineral resources are used to support broader societal goals, including reconciliation with Indigenous communities—at home and abroad.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it