Robust Temporal Link Prediction in Dynamic Complex Networks via Stable Gated Models With Reinforcement Learning
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Temporal link prediction is one of the most important tasks for predicting time-varying links by capturing dynamics within complex networks. However, it suffers from difficulties such as vulnerability to adversarial attacks and inadaptation to distinct evolutionary patterns. In this article, we propose a robust temporal link prediction architecture via stable gated models with reinforcement learning (SAGE-RL) consisting of a state encoding network (SEN) and a self-adaptive policy network (SPN). The former is utilized to capture network dynamics, while the latter helps the former adapt to distinct evolutionary patterns across various time periods. Within the SEN, a novel stable gate is introduced to ensure multiple spatiotemporal dependency paths and defend against adversarial attacks. An SPN is proposed to select different SEN instances by approximating the optimal action function, thereby adapting to various evolutionary patterns to learn the robust temporal and structural features from dynamic complex networks. It is proven that SAGE-LR with integral Lipschitz graph convolution is stable to relative perturbations in dynamic complex networks. With the aid of extensive experiments on five real-world graph benchmarks, SAGE-LR is shown to substantially outperform current state-of-the-art approaches in terms of precision and stability of temporal link prediction and ability to successfully defend against various attacks. We also implement the temporal link prediction in shipping transaction networks, which forecast effectively its potential transaction risks.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it