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Record W4399653212 · doi:10.54097/cnks5y78

Predicting Blue-Chip Stock Returns Using Machine Learning Algorithms

2024· article· en· W4399653212 on OpenAlexaff
Lile Wei

Bibliographic record

VenueHighlights in Science Engineering and Technology · 2024
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicStock Market Forecasting Methods
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Alberta
Fundersnot available
KeywordsIBMMachine learningStock (firearms)EconometricsVolatility (finance)Artificial intelligenceRandom forestSupport vector machineMarket capitalizationComputer scienceStock marketAlgorithmEconomicsEngineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The aim of the paper is to identify the relationship between blue chip stock returns and market indices using advanced machine learning models. The key objective of the study is to determine an efficient machine learning (ML) model that produces minimum error which gauging the relationship between market volatility indices, i.e., VIX, ISEE, and NASDAQ-100 and stock returns of blue-chip companies like Apple, Amazon, and IBM. In recent studies, machine learning models are generally used for the prediction of stock price movements of the company’s stocks. However, very few studies attempt to explore the relationship between market volatility indices and stock returns of blue chip or large capitalization companies using ML models. Therefore, the current research fills this research gap by analyzing the relationship between market volatility indices and the returns of blue-chip stocks like Amazon, Apple, and IBM. The study employs support vector machine (SVR), regression tree, and random forest model to assess the desired relationships. The findings suggest that the regression tree model predicts the stock returns of Amazon better, while SVR model is comparatively better in predicting the stock returns of Apple and IBM. However, the main limitation of the research is lack of consideration for additional stocks and machine learning which could have improved the generalizability of the research findings. Thus, future research studies should consider different types of stocks from different sectors and estimate the predictive capacity of various machine learning models.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.003
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.008
Threshold uncertainty score0.015

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.003
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.051
GPT teacher head0.345
Teacher spread0.295 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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