Epidemiology of travel-associated dengue from 2007 to 2022: A GeoSentinel analysis
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Dengue is a leading cause of febrile illness among international travellers. We aimed to describe the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of imported dengue in returning travellers evaluated at GeoSentinel sites from 2007 to 2022. METHODS: We retrieved GeoSentinel records of dengue among travellers residing in non-endemic countries. We considered dengue confirmed when diagnosed by a positive dengue virus (DENV)-specific reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, positive NS-1 antigen and/or anti-DENV IgG seroconversion, and probable when diagnosed by single anti-DENV IgM or high-titre anti-DENV IgG detection. Severe dengue was defined as evidence of clinically significant plasma leakage or bleeding, organ failure, or shock, according to the 2009 World Health Organization guidance. Complicated dengue was defined as either severe dengue or dengue with presence of any warning sign. Analyses were descriptive. RESULTS: This analysis included 5958 travellers with confirmed (n = 4859; 81.6%) or probable (n = 1099; 18.4%) dengue. The median age was 33 years (range: <1-91); 3007 (50.5%) travellers were female. The median travel duration was 21 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 15-32). The median time between illness onset and GeoSentinel site visit was 7 days (IQR: 4-15). The most frequent reasons for travel were tourism (67.3%), visiting friends or relatives (12.2%) and business (11.0%). The most frequent regions of acquisition were South East Asia (50.4%), South Central Asia (14.9%), the Caribbean (10.9%) and South America (9.2%). Ninety-five (1.6%) travellers had complicated dengue, of whom 27 (0.5%) had severe dengue and one died. Of 2710 travellers with data available, 724 (26.7%) were hospitalized. The largest number of cases (n = 835) was reported in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: A broad range of international travellers should be aware of the risk of acquiring dengue and receive appropriate pre-travel counselling regarding preventive measures. Prospective cohort studies are needed to further elucidate dengue risk by destination and over time, as well as severe outcomes and prolonged morbidity (long dengue) due to travel-related dengue.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it