CoBacFM: Core bacteria forecast model for global grassland pH dynamics under future climate warming scenarios
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Soil microbes regulate various biogeochemical cycles on Earth and respond rapidly to climate change, which is accompanied by changes in soil pH. However, the long-term patterns of these changes under future climate scenarios remain unclear. We propose a core-bacteria-forecast model (CoBacFM) to model soil pH changes by shifts of core bacterial groups under future scenarios using a curated soil microbiota dataset of global grasslands. Our model estimates that soil pH will increase in 63.8%–67.0% of grassland regions and decrease in 10.1%–12.4% of regions. Approximately 32.5%–32.9% of regions will become more alkaline by 5.6%, and these areas expand in all future scenarios. These results were supported by 14 warming simulation experiments. Using bacterial responses as bioindicators of soil pH, the CoBacFM method can accurately forecast pH changes in future scenarios, and the changing global climate is likely to result in the alkalization of grasslands.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it